KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

60%

54%

44%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

ICONNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.10u · ICON −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	76.6%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	46.1%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.8%	59.4%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	60.4%	9.9%	0.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	69.6%	34.3%	34.3%	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	37.2%	59.8%	30.3%	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	40.5%	54.8%	15.9%	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	40.9%	20.1%	33.0%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	21.4%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	45.6%	49.1%	33.0%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	42.0%	47.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	43.6%	50.9%	27.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	33.5%	47.2%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	33.0%	38.5%	38.5%	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	12.4%	51.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	24.3%	53.1%	24.3%	0.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	26.2%	56.3%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	31.1%	56.5%	28.2%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	41.0%	59.0%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.6%	65.9%	21.5%	0.0%	30.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	28.3%	53.6%	23.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.6%	56.2%	23.6%	59.9%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	44.9%	62.7%	20.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	16.5%	68.1%	24.0%	30.7%	28.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	63.7%	54.2%	20.1%	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	57.2%	25.6%	54.3%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	51.5%	10.5%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	72.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	44%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗