KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

17%

14%

10%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.85u

ICONNO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.15u · ICON −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:16+00:00	40.5%	18.3%	29.6%	23.3%	38.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	40.5%	18.3%	29.6%	23.3%	38.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	40.5%	18.3%	29.6%	23.3%	38.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	40.5%	18.3%	29.6%	23.3%	38.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	40.5%	18.3%	29.6%	23.3%	38.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	29.6%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	29.6%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	29.6%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	29.6%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	29.6%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	43.6%	18.3%	28.0%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	43.6%	31.5%	28.0%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	43.6%	31.5%	28.0%	25.5%	33.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	38.9%	31.5%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	38.9%	31.5%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	38.9%	25.2%	28.0%	25.5%	33.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	28.0%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	28.0%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	28.0%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	28.0%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	46.0%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	44.4%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	44.4%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	44.4%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	44.4%	25.2%	29.6%	29.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	25.9%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	25.9%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	25.9%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	46.5%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	26.8%	20.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	26.8%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	47.4%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	25.1%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	26.8%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	26.8%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	51.7%	21.2%	26.8%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	43.5%	21.2%	26.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	43.5%	21.2%	26.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	43.5%	21.2%	26.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	43.5%	21.2%	26.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	43.5%	21.2%	26.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	43.5%	25.4%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	43.5%	25.4%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	43.5%	25.4%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	39.9%	25.4%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	39.9%	25.8%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	25.7%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	23.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	23.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	23.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	39.9%	17.1%	23.8%	19.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	23.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	23.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	23.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	23.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	22.0%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	47.2%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	47.2%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	47.2%	17.1%	13.6%	9.7%	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	71.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	68.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗