KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

17%

14%

10%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.85u

ICONNO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.15u · ICON −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	53.8%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	22.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.1%	33.0%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	33.0%	2.3%	0.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	41.3%	12.8%	12.8%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	13.8%	30.3%	10.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	14.9%	24.8%	3.6%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	14.3%	4.7%	10.1%	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	4.9%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	16.1%	18.4%	9.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	13.5%	16.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	13.9%	18.4%	6.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	8.4%	15.4%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	7.9%	10.2%	10.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.6%	16.4%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.2%	17.0%	4.2%	0.0%	5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	4.5%	18.3%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	5.6%	17.6%	4.7%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.7%	18.3%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.9%	22.4%	2.5%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	3.7%	13.2%	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	2.5%	13.7%	2.5%	15.9%	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	7.7%	16.6%	1.8%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	1.0%	19.1%	2.0%	3.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	14.7%	9.8%	1.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	20.2%	10.2%	1.8%	8.9%	1.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	7.0%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	8.3%	—	11.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	71.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	68.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗