KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

53%

42%

26%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.25u · ICON −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:12+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	54.3%	35.9%	42.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	68.5%	35.9%	42.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	68.5%	35.9%	42.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	68.5%	35.9%	42.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	68.5%	35.9%	42.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	73.6%	38.8%	68.5%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	73.6%	38.8%	68.5%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	73.6%	38.8%	68.5%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	73.6%	38.8%	68.5%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	73.6%	37.7%	55.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	73.6%	37.7%	55.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	73.6%	37.7%	55.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	73.6%	37.7%	55.9%	38.6%	38.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	70.5%	38.1%	55.9%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	70.5%	38.1%	55.9%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	70.5%	35.8%	55.9%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	70.5%	35.8%	55.9%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	70.5%	35.8%	54.7%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	70.5%	35.8%	54.7%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	70.5%	35.8%	54.7%	38.5%	38.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	54.7%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	54.7%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	54.7%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	54.7%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	54.7%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	69.7%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	52.4%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	63.9%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	63.9%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	72.1%	35.8%	63.9%	32.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	72.3%	35.8%	63.9%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	72.3%	35.8%	63.9%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	72.3%	35.8%	63.9%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	72.3%	35.8%	63.9%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	72.3%	35.8%	63.9%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	72.3%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	72.3%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	72.3%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:20+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	57.7%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	50.0%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	50.0%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	69.8%	41.5%	50.0%	38.5%	26.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	50.0%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	50.0%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	50.0%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	50.0%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	50.0%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	70.7%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	71.5%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	71.5%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	71.5%	41.5%	52.6%	25.5%	20.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	74.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗