KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

53%

42%

26%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.25u · ICON −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	3.3%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	25.7%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	6.4%	23.3%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	38.2%	21.9%	0.1%	—	24.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	34.3%	46.4%	10.6%	—	35.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	45.4%	17.9%	26.4%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	37.5%	2.9%	33.0%	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	34.5%	25.1%	25.8%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	12.8%	38.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	40.5%	40.5%	25.5%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	35.9%	39.3%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	27.4%	38.2%	26.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	33.5%	38.8%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	32.1%	36.6%	25.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	25.7%	37.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	25.9%	35.9%	17.6%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	34.5%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	30.1%	39.2%	21.3%	—	32.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	29.6%	36.7%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	21.5%	38.5%	17.5%	0.0%	20.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	38.1%	35.9%	11.9%	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	41.3%	33.1%	14.4%	23.6%	35.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	30.2%	15.8%	—	29.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	74.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗