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KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
30%
ICON
11%
WN2
11%
HRES
9%
EPS
4%
Consensus
12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 17.2¢Risks 17.20u
VS
EPSNO 82.8¢Risks 82.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.80u · EPS −82.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:0024.3%4.3%20.3%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0024.3%4.3%20.3%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0024.3%4.3%18.8%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:0024.3%4.3%18.8%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0024.3%4.3%18.8%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:0024.3%4.3%18.8%7.8%18.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:0025.7%4.3%18.8%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0025.7%4.3%18.8%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0025.7%4.3%18.8%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0025.7%4.3%18.8%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0025.7%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:0025.7%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0025.7%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:0025.7%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:0030.1%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0030.1%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0030.1%4.3%10.9%8.7%11.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single30%77.1°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend13%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON11%73.6°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 211%74.9°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES9%72.7°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%73.5°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗