KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

11%

11%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.2¢Risks 17.20u

EPSNO 82.8¢Risks 82.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.80u · EPS −82.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	7.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.9%	5.8%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	11.9%	4.9%	0.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	9.3%	15.6%	1.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	14.2%	3.0%	5.6%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	9.3%	0.2%	7.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	7.4%	4.3%	4.5%	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	1.4%	8.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	9.0%	3.9%	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.9%	8.1%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.9%	7.3%	3.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	5.3%	7.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	4.6%	5.9%	3.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.8%	5.7%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.6%	4.9%	1.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	4.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.9%	5.0%	1.5%	—	3.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.6%	4.0%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.2%	4.0%	0.8%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	3.1%	0.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.7%	2.3%	0.4%	1.1%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.6%	0.4%	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	77.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	73.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗