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KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
35%
WN2
24%
ICON
9%
HRES
9%
EPS
4%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 19.4¢Risks 19.40u
VS
EPSNO 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.60u · EPS −80.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:0038.1%3.7%33.1%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0038.1%3.7%33.1%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0038.1%3.7%36.7%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:0038.1%3.7%36.7%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0038.1%3.7%36.7%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:0038.1%3.7%36.7%15.4%25.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:0032.1%3.7%36.7%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0032.1%3.7%36.7%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0032.1%3.7%36.7%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0032.1%3.7%36.7%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0032.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:0032.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0032.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:0032.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:0035.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0035.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0035.1%3.7%24.0%8.6%9.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%82.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single35%79.6°F5.0°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend25%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%78.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON9%73.3°F6.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES9%73.6°F5.8°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.9°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗