KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

24%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

EPSNO 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.60u · EPS −80.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	7.3%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.0%	2.7%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	7.7%	1.7%	0.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	13.6%	15.6%	0.4%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	8.7%	16.4%	0.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	8.7%	20.6%	3.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	23.7%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	1.1%	11.6%	2.5%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.4%	13.7%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	5.2%	11.3%	3.4%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	3.6%	10.8%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	3.0%	9.4%	1.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	4.4%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	9.4%	9.0%	1.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.0%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.2%	7.8%	0.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	7.2%	9.2%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.5%	2.9%	0.4%	5.9%	3.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	5.4%	0.0%	—	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	79.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	73.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	73.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗