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KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
26%
WN2
16%
HRES
9%
ICON
4%
EPS
3%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u
VS
EPSNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.55u · EPS −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:0029.0%3.0%24.7%13.1%23.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:0021.9%3.0%24.7%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0021.9%3.0%24.7%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0021.9%3.0%24.7%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0021.9%3.0%24.7%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0021.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:0021.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:0021.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:0021.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:0025.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0025.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0025.9%3.0%16.3%9.1%4.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%84.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single26%80.0°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%78.9°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend13%81.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES9%74.7°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON4%71.1°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%74.5°F4.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗