KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

16%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

EPSNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.55u · EPS −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	1.2%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	12.2%	13.0%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	5.3%	9.6%	7.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	8.7%	1.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	5.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	4.3%	10.8%	3.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.4%	7.7%	2.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.7%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	7.0%	6.8%	1.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.2%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.6%	7.6%	0.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	7.0%	5.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.9%	5.4%	0.7%	6.5%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	80.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	74.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	71.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗