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KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
21%
AIFS
12%
WN2
6%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.6¢Risks 10.60u
VS
EPSNO 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.40u · EPS −89.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0010-17 05:2810-17 06:13
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:0011.8%0.1%6.1%2.2%21.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0011.8%0.1%6.1%2.2%21.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON21%81.5°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single12%82.7°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%81.6°F5.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast5%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
National Blend3%80.0°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%76.5°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%75.6°F4.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 05:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Kansas City · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗