KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.6¢Risks 10.60u

EPSNO 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.40u · EPS −89.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.3%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.3%	0.8%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	81.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	81.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	80.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	76.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 05:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Kansas City · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗