KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

72%

61%

56%

51%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

HRESNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.45u · HRES −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	63.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	2.5%	0.5%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	37.6%	34.9%	3.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	55.8%	25.4%	39.9%	—	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	64.2%	25.8%	32.3%	—	38.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	86.0%	72.6%	32.3%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	66.6%	—	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	77.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	76.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	74.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	73.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗