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KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
82%
AIFS
82%
ICON
78%
EPS
68%
WN2
55%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u
VS
WN2NO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.30u · WN2 −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:0079.4%70.9%17.8%25.7%71.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0079.4%70.9%17.8%25.7%71.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0079.4%70.9%12.0%25.7%71.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0079.4%70.9%12.0%25.7%71.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0079.4%70.9%12.0%25.7%71.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0082.3%70.9%12.0%25.7%78.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0082.3%70.9%12.0%25.7%78.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0082.3%70.9%12.0%25.7%78.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0082.3%70.9%12.0%25.7%78.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:0082.3%68.0%55.1%82.3%78.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0082.3%68.0%55.1%82.3%78.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0082.3%68.0%55.1%82.3%78.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0082.3%68.0%55.1%82.3%78.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES82%76.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single82%75.5°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON78%76.1°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble68%73.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%71.1°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend42%69.0°F7.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗