KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

78%

68%

55%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

WN2NO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.30u · WN2 −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	21.4%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	5.4%	67.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	57.7%	2.1%	13.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	64.3%	10.3%	50.0%	57.3%	21.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	75.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	76.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	71.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	69.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗