KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

78%

67%

60%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

HRESNO 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.65u · HRES −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:46+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	89.3%	79.8%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	89.3%	79.8%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	89.3%	79.8%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	89.3%	79.8%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:41+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	89.3%	79.8%	—
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	90.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	90.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	94.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	94.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	94.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	94.9%	50.9%	72.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	94.9%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	94.9%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	94.9%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	94.9%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	90.4%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	74.4%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	76.9%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	76.9%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	76.9%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	76.9%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	76.9%	74.0%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	76.9%	66.9%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	76.9%	66.9%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	76.9%	66.9%	93.1%	57.1%	85.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:13+00:00	77.7%	66.9%	93.1%	59.6%	85.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	77.7%	66.6%	93.1%	59.6%	85.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0048
ICON	85%	81.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0219
AIFS Single	78%	80.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0497
IFS Ensemble	67%	78.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1116
IFS HRES	60%	78.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
National Blend	39%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3709

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗