KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

78%

67%

60%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

HRESNO 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.65u · HRES −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	39.2%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	23.6%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	14.3%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	64.4%	25.2%	33.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	79.5%	31.7%	76.8%	—	71.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	66.3%	26.4%	67.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	75.2%	54.0%	63.3%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	85.2%	67.0%	67.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	88.5%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	53.5%	52.6%	13.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	77.8%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	51.8%	57.3%	13.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	66.5%	49.0%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	66.1%	49.0%	13.6%	—	32.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	79.6%	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	58.2%	47.9%	32.1%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	77.2%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	86.3%	14.9%	69.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	81.7%	20.6%	0.8%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	78.5%	37.4%	58.1%	—	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	80.1%	37.0%	42.8%	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	86.3%	29.8%	35.4%	40.1%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	84.2%	31.4%	31.4%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	80.9%	36.8%	33.1%	40.7%	40.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	87.5%	36.3%	36.3%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	85.4%	51.4%	40.0%	48.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	68.9%	41.0%	45.5%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	79.7%	51.6%	50.0%	69.7%	48.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	80.8%	54.9%	59.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0048
ICON	85%	81.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0219
AIFS Single	78%	80.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0497
IFS Ensemble	67%	78.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1116
IFS HRES	60%	78.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
National Blend	39%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3709

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗