KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

64%

52%

42%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.95u · ICON −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:50+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	86.3%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	86.3%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	82.7%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	82.7%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	82.7%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	75.1%	95.6%	82.7%	69.3%	80.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	69.4%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:32+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	82.1%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	87.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	87.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	87.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	72.7%	95.6%	87.7%	63.7%	70.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	87.7%	95.6%	87.7%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	87.7%	95.6%	87.7%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	87.7%	95.6%	87.7%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	87.7%	95.6%	87.7%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	87.7%	90.9%	84.8%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	87.7%	90.9%	84.8%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	87.7%	90.9%	84.8%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	87.7%	90.9%	84.8%	60.3%	75.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	83.4%	90.9%	84.7%	60.3%	75.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	84.7%	60.3%	75.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	84.7%	60.3%	75.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	84.7%	60.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	83.4%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	82.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	82.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	82.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	82.9%	60.1%	82.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	82.9%	58.1%	82.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	86.8%	58.2%	82.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	86.8%	58.2%	82.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	87.1%	90.2%	86.8%	58.2%	82.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	76.6%	90.2%	86.8%	58.2%	82.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	76.6%	90.2%	86.8%	58.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	66.6%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	66.6%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	78.2%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	78.2%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	78.2%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	78.2%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	78.2%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	78.2%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	78.2%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	78.2%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	56.5%	81.2%	77.1%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	56.5%	45.7%	77.1%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	56.5%	45.7%	77.1%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	81.3%	45.8%	77.1%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	81.3%	45.8%	77.1%	33.5%	54.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	79.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	79.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	77.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	77.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	77.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	72.0%	64.1%	77.5%	37.4%	52.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	77.5%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	77.5%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	77.5%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	77.5%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	71.2%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	70.9%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	72.0%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	72.0%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	72.0%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	70.3%	64.1%	72.0%	52.1%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	81.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
AIFS Single	70%	81.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0882
IFS Ensemble	64%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1289
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	52%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2294
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3125
ICON	42%	78.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗