KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

64%

52%

42%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.95u · ICON −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	28.2%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	14.8%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	50.7%	15.3%	21.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	67.7%	19.9%	64.3%	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	51.5%	15.5%	52.3%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	61.0%	38.2%	47.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	20.1%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	73.5%	50.8%	50.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	78.0%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	36.3%	35.4%	6.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	62.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	33.9%	39.1%	5.8%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	48.1%	30.9%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	47.1%	30.4%	5.6%	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	62.8%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	37.8%	28.5%	16.3%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	58.4%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	70.8%	5.6%	48.9%	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	63.3%	8.3%	0.1%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	58.1%	18.3%	35.2%	—	32.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	59.5%	17.5%	21.6%	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	68.0%	12.4%	15.9%	19.1%	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	63.9%	12.8%	12.8%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	58.0%	15.7%	13.4%	18.2%	18.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	67.5%	14.7%	14.7%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	62.8%	24.5%	16.3%	22.2%	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	39.5%	16.2%	19.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	51.6%	22.6%	21.4%	39.1%	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.6%	24.1%	28.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	81.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
AIFS Single	70%	81.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0882
IFS Ensemble	64%	80.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1289
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	52%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2294
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3125
ICON	42%	78.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗