KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u

EPSNO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.25u · EPS −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:47+00:00	14.9%	14.3%	20.3%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	14.9%	14.3%	20.3%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	14.9%	14.3%	20.3%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	14.9%	14.3%	20.3%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:41+00:00	14.9%	14.3%	20.3%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	14.9%	16.6%	9.7%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	14.9%	16.6%	9.7%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	14.9%	16.6%	9.7%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	19.4%	16.6%	9.7%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	19.5%	16.6%	9.8%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	9.8%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	9.8%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	9.8%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	10.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	10.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	19.5%	18.2%	10.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	10.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	10.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	10.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	10.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	10.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	24.8%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	14.2%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	15.1%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	15.1%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	28.4%	18.2%	15.1%	22.9%	32.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	15.1%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	15.1%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	15.1%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	15.1%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	15.1%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	19.8%	18.2%	19.0%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	19.8%	5.2%	19.0%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	19.8%	5.2%	19.0%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	15.4%	5.2%	19.0%	19.2%	33.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	19.1%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	19.1%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	19.1%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	15.2%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	15.2%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	15.2%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	15.5%	5.2%	15.2%	19.2%	33.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	15.2%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	15.2%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	15.2%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	15.2%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:32+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	14.7%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	20.9%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	20.9%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	20.9%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	13.7%	5.2%	20.9%	15.4%	22.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	25.1%	5.2%	20.9%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	25.1%	5.2%	20.9%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	25.1%	5.2%	20.9%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	25.1%	5.2%	20.9%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	25.1%	0.8%	12.0%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	25.1%	0.8%	12.0%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	25.1%	0.8%	12.0%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	25.1%	0.8%	12.0%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	19.8%	0.8%	12.1%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	12.1%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	12.1%	9.7%	19.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	12.1%	10.0%	19.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	19.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	19.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	19.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	10.7%	10.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	10.7%	9.2%	28.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	24.6%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	28.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	3.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	3.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	3.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	12.0%	0.7%	14.3%	8.8%	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0204
AIFS Single	12%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0144
IFS HRES	9%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0077
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0053
ICON	3%	79.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗