KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u

EPSNO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.25u · EPS −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	9.3%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	5.8%	0.5%	0.9%	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.7%	0.6%	10.0%	—	7.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.6%	0.3%	4.8%	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.4%	1.8%	3.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.4%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	10.4%	3.1%	3.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.3%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.0%	0.9%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.3%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.6%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	0.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.8%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0204
AIFS Single	12%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0144
IFS HRES	9%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0077
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0053
ICON	3%	79.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗