KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

15%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.7¢Risks 5.35u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 44.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · EPS −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:48+00:00	11.1%	7.9%	15.4%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	11.1%	7.9%	15.4%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	11.1%	7.9%	15.4%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	11.1%	7.9%	15.4%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:41+00:00	11.1%	7.9%	15.4%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	11.1%	10.2%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	11.1%	10.2%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	11.1%	10.2%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	14.9%	10.2%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	15.0%	10.2%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	6.7%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.2%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.2%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.2%	14.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	7.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	7.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	7.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	7.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	7.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	19.5%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.2%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.9%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.9%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	22.6%	11.3%	10.9%	18.4%	29.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	10.9%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	10.9%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	10.9%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	10.9%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	10.9%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	13.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	15.0%	2.3%	13.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	15.0%	2.3%	13.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	13.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	13.7%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	13.7%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	13.7%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	10.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	10.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	10.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	11.4%	2.3%	10.6%	15.4%	28.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	8.5%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:32+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	10.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	15.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	15.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:08+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	15.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	10.0%	2.3%	15.2%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	19.1%	2.3%	15.2%	7.0%	15.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	19.1%	2.3%	15.2%	7.0%	15.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	19.1%	2.3%	15.2%	7.0%	15.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	19.1%	2.3%	15.2%	7.0%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	19%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0365
ICON	15%	83.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0237
WeatherNext 2	15%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0231
IFS HRES	7%	81.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0049
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0005
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗