KMCO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

15%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.7¢Risks 5.35u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 44.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · EPS −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.8%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	6.9%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	4.0%	0.3%	0.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.4%	0.4%	7.1%	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.0%	0.2%	3.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.3%	1.1%	2.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	7.1%	1.9%	1.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.5%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.6%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.8%	0.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.5%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	19%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0365
ICON	15%	83.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0237
WeatherNext 2	15%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0231
IFS HRES	7%	81.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0049
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0005
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗