KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

72%

54%

11%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

ICONNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.10u · ICON −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	91.0%	91.8%	86.3%	76.6%	60.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	91.0%	91.8%	86.3%	76.6%	60.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	91.0%	91.8%	86.3%	76.6%	60.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	91.0%	91.8%	86.3%	76.6%	60.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	91.0%	91.8%	86.3%	76.6%	60.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	88.2%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	88.2%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	91.9%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	91.9%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	91.9%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	89.3%	62.9%	91.9%	42.1%	63.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	91.9%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	91.9%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	91.9%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	91.9%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	67.6%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	88.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	64.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	90.2%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	72.0%	36.9%	86.4%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	72.0%	36.9%	86.4%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	72.0%	36.9%	86.4%	52.4%	65.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:13+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	86.4%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	86.4%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	86.4%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	86.4%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	86.4%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	65.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	51.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	51.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	51.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	37.7%	51.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.7%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	71.3%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	75.8%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	75.8%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	75.8%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	75.8%	36.9%	92.3%	51.8%	51.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	88.4%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	88.4%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	81.7%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	81.7%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	81.7%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	78.5%	76.8%	81.7%	50.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	76.2%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	87.1%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	74.7%	76.8%	81.7%	55.8%	41.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00	76.1%	76.8%	81.7%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	76.1%	76.8%	81.7%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	76.1%	76.8%	81.7%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	76.1%	76.8%	81.7%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	76.1%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	76.1%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	76.1%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	76.1%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	75.3%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	75.3%	77.6%	75.4%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	75.3%	71.8%	75.4%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	75.3%	71.8%	75.4%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	75.3%	71.8%	77.5%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	75.3%	71.8%	77.5%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	75.3%	71.8%	77.5%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	77.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	77.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	77.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	77.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	77.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	72.9%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	70.9%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	78.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	78.5%	54.3%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	78.5%	54.3%	11.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	81.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	82.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	79.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗