KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

72%

54%

11%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

ICONNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.10u · ICON −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	38.0%	41.9%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	57.0%	44.4%	31.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	65.7%	57.3%	74.6%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	84.9%	52.3%	62.0%	—	64.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	85.1%	80.0%	23.0%	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	26.3%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	41.7%	72.1%	19.5%	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	61.8%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	50.0%	70.1%	20.2%	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	84.5%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	50.9%	62.7%	45.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	49.0%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	58.7%	40.4%	69.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	54.0%	35.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	43.9%	34.9%	55.1%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	46.8%	55.3%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	44.5%	55.5%	26.4%	0.0%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	46.6%	43.3%	0.2%	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	44.2%	33.1%	23.3%	27.0%	34.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	30.4%	46.4%	32.5%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	30.9%	35.4%	30.9%	0.2%	37.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	46.1%	36.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	15.7%	51.3%	28.4%	42.0%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	19.1%	51.4%	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	24.5%	47.1%	47.1%	42.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	81.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	82.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	79.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗