KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 06:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.3¢Risks 3.63u

EPSNO 92.8¢Risks 46.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.38u · EPS −46.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	27.3%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	27.3%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	27.3%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	27.3%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	27.3%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	39.4%	3.4%	32.8%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	39.4%	6.7%	32.8%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	39.4%	6.7%	32.8%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	39.4%	6.7%	32.8%	24.4%	26.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	32.9%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	32.9%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	32.9%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	24.4%	26.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	36.6%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	39.5%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:34+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.0%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.7%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.7%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.7%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	30.7%	25.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	37.4%	6.7%	30.7%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	37.4%	6.7%	30.7%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	37.4%	6.7%	30.7%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	37.4%	6.7%	30.7%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	27.0%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	27.0%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	27.0%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	27.0%	24.2%	31.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	33.2%	3.7%	27.0%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	27.0%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	27.0%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	27.0%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	33.2%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	24.9%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	24.9%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	36.0%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	26.7%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	25.2%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	41.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	25.2%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	41.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	25.2%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	41.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	25.2%	3.3%	28.6%	21.8%	41.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	25.2%	3.3%	28.6%	19.3%	41.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	25.2%	3.1%	15.4%	19.3%	41.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	25.2%	3.1%	15.4%	19.3%	41.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	25.2%	3.1%	15.4%	19.3%	41.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	22.1%	3.1%	15.4%	19.3%	41.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	22.2%	3.1%	15.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	15.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	15.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	15.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	10.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	10.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	22.2%	3.3%	10.3%	19.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.3%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.3%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.3%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.3%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.3%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	21.0%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	10.7%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	15.9%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	15.9%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	24.7%	3.3%	15.9%	2.7%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	15.9%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	15.9%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	15.9%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	15.9%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	15.9%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	5.6%	3.3%	10.8%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	5.6%	1.9%	10.8%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	5.6%	1.9%	10.8%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	23.6%	1.9%	10.8%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	23.6%	1.9%	10.8%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	10.8%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	10.8%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	15.4%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	15.4%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	15.4%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	23.6%	1.6%	15.4%	2.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	15.4%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	15.4%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	15.4%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	15.4%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	10.8%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	12.9%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	12.9%	4.1%	6.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	12.9%	4.1%	6.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	13%	84.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0166
AIFS Single	10%	82.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0106
ICON	7%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	4%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0017
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0003
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗