KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 06:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.3¢Risks 3.63u

EPSNO 92.8¢Risks 46.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.38u · EPS −46.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	3.4%	4.2%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	7.9%	4.2%	1.9%	—	9.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	10.6%	7.1%	16.1%	—	10.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	24.5%	4.8%	7.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	22.4%	16.9%	0.5%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.7%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	9.7%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	5.1%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.4%	7.3%	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.5%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	3.9%	1.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	0.7%	4.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	0.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	0.3%	1.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	1.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	13%	84.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0166
AIFS Single	10%	82.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0106
ICON	7%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	4%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0017
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0003
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗