KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

26%

11%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

WN2NO 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.45u · WN2 −59.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	98.1%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	33.6%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	48.6%	44.6%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	29.8%	41.6%	55.6%	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	22.1%	29.1%	15.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	7.8%	33.0%	24.5%	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	7.5%	10.8%	63.3%	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	58.9%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	41.7%	15.7%	67.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	23.3%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	33.0%	16.7%	65.4%	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	7.1%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	31.4%	21.6%	36.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	32.6%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	24.0%	40.4%	15.9%	—	66.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	27.4%	45.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	35.9%	44.9%	25.9%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	32.6%	25.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	34.1%	24.7%	53.3%	99.7%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	31.5%	34.6%	98.8%	—	43.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	33.1%	44.2%	55.8%	51.2%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	46.4%	30.4%	44.0%	—	46.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	45.0%	40.1%	45.0%	98.8%	37.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	44.9%	29.1%	38.5%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	63.2%	24.0%	46.0%	31.9%	35.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	56.9%	23.2%	59.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	48.5%	25.6%	25.6%	29.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	74%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	79.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	82.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	81.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗