KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

66%

48%

40%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.9¢Risks 62.85u

ICONNO 37.1¢Risks 37.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.15u · ICON −37.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	84.3%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	69.9%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	31.8%	70.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	44.4%	83.4%	23.0%	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	74.0%	86.1%	34.3%	—	60.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	35.8%	87.5%	41.7%	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	70.5%	78.2%	26.1%	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	24.3%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	69.2%	58.3%	50.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	61.0%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	63.7%	54.4%	43.0%	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	55.4%	55.4%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	52.8%	54.6%	41.8%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	58.5%	71.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	49.0%	64.3%	50.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	48.0%	59.9%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	54.1%	53.1%	27.6%	0.2%	38.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	46.8%	67.4%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	54.4%	67.9%	22.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	48.9%	43.3%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	43.0%	46.5%	23.3%	0.1%	37.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	44.0%	46.4%	19.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	34.2%	42.6%	26.6%	40.1%	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	41.0%	53.9%	21.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	54.0%	47.3%	26.2%	36.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	63.7%	71.2%	37.7%	—	39.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	72.0%	75.5%	47.1%	61.4%	35.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	70.2%	56.0%	—	26.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	82.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	80.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	40%	78.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗