KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.1¢Risks 13.05u

WN2NO 86.9¢Risks 86.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.95u · WN2 −86.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	48.6%	14.7%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	34.9%	6.7%	58.4%	—	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	11.7%	5.1%	44.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	41.7%	4.2%	35.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	12.7%	8.4%	51.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	53.3%	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	12.9%	20.1%	25.8%	—	30.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	17.8%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	15.6%	22.1%	31.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	20.9%	20.9%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	22.3%	20.9%	31.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	17.7%	10.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	24.0%	13.6%	23.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	24.1%	15.8%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.0%	19.7%	42.8%	98.4%	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	23.6%	10.6%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	17.6%	9.9%	47.8%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	20.6%	24.9%	99.9%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	24.2%	21.5%	44.2%	98.6%	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	22.5%	20.8%	47.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	29.8%	22.7%	37.7%	24.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	22.8%	14.3%	42.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	13.4%	17.3%	35.6%	25.1%	30.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	8.1%	5.4%	23.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	4.7%	3.7%	15.4%	8.3%	23.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	4.8%	9.9%	—	31.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	78.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	80.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗