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KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
EPS
94%
AIFS
84%
ICON
83%
HRES
65%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 79.5¢Risks 79.55u
VS
HRESNO 20.5¢Risks 20.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.45u · HRES −20.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 82.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:26+00:0081.2%75.3%93.7%68.6%79.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0081.2%75.3%94.0%68.6%79.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0081.2%75.3%94.0%68.6%79.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0081.2%75.3%94.0%68.6%79.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:0083.2%75.3%94.0%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0083.2%75.3%94.0%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0083.2%75.3%94.0%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0083.2%75.3%94.0%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0083.2%75.3%94.0%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0083.2%93.7%94.4%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0083.2%93.7%94.4%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0083.2%93.7%94.4%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0083.7%93.7%94.4%64.8%82.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0083.7%93.7%94.3%64.8%82.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%85.4°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%82.4°F1.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%84.0°F4.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON83%84.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES65%81.4°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend59%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗