KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

94%

84%

83%

65%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.5¢Risks 79.55u

HRESNO 20.5¢Risks 20.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.45u · HRES −20.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	31.4%	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	28.0%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	65.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	27.7%	75.6%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	67.0%	64.4%	26.9%	—	54.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	55.1%	67.0%	57.3%	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	73.0%	28.9%	61.3%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.7%	66.3%	64.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	9.5%	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	68.5%	74.9%	48.3%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	70.4%	71.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	73.8%	64.6%	57.8%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	65.8%	41.1%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	69.5%	73.4%	66.1%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	70.8%	70.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	76.8%	29.6%	52.9%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	58.0%	26.5%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	68.8%	67.0%	53.1%	—	53.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	85.0%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	68.9%	60.8%	44.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	68.5%	70.4%	0.0%	—	51.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	68.0%	33.1%	54.6%	0.1%	51.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	80.9%	60.7%	47.6%	—	51.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	71.3%	55.0%	48.8%	72.4%	55.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	34.9%	59.0%	—	57.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	82.4°F	1.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	84.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	83%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	81.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗