KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

19%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.4¢Risks 16.35u

EPSNO 83.7¢Risks 83.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.65u · EPS −83.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:33+00:00	29.7%	1.5%	39.8%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	29.7%	1.5%	18.8%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	29.7%	1.5%	18.8%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	29.7%	1.5%	18.8%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	15.1%	1.5%	18.8%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	15.1%	1.5%	19.0%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	19.0%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	19.0%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	19.0%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	24.9%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	24.9%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	15.1%	1.7%	24.9%	10.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	17.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	24.9%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	18.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.9%	38.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	27.5%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	9.7%	1.7%	22.0%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	9.7%	0.1%	22.0%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	9.7%	0.1%	22.0%	6.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	22.0%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	22.0%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	22.0%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	22.0%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	20.2%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	20.2%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	20.2%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	20.2%	6.3%	21.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	20.2%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	20.2%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	20.2%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	20.2%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.0%	6.9%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	33%	86.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	85.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	79.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗