KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

19%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.4¢Risks 16.35u

EPSNO 83.7¢Risks 83.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.65u · EPS −83.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	2.5%	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	11.0%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	15.9%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.3%	8.2%	0.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.4%	8.2%	4.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	9.7%	0.7%	5.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.2%	5.7%	5.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.3%	7.7%	1.6%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.4%	5.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.9%	3.4%	2.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.2%	0.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.6%	4.6%	2.9%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.4%	3.4%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.4%	0.1%	0.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	1.6%	0.6%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.2%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.2%	0.7%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	33%	86.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	85.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	79.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗