KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

75%

66%

55%

42%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

HRESNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.45u · HRES −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00	76.5%	67.4%	88.5%	42.2%	74.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	76.5%	67.4%	88.9%	42.2%	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	76.5%	67.4%	88.9%	42.2%	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	76.5%	67.4%	88.9%	42.2%	74.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:11+00:00	78.4%	67.4%	88.9%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	78.4%	67.4%	88.9%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	78.4%	67.4%	88.9%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	78.4%	67.4%	88.9%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	78.4%	67.4%	88.9%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	78.4%	73.4%	92.4%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	78.4%	73.4%	92.4%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	78.4%	73.4%	92.4%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	77.2%	73.4%	92.4%	41.8%	79.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	77.3%	73.4%	92.4%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	92.4%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	92.4%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	91.3%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	91.3%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	91.3%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	77.3%	72.2%	91.3%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	91.3%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	91.3%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	91.3%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	91.3%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	74.1%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	90.6%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	88.8%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	88.8%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	88.8%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	74.8%	72.2%	88.8%	42.5%	74.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00	77.7%	72.2%	88.8%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	77.7%	72.2%	88.8%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	77.7%	72.2%	88.8%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	77.7%	72.2%	88.8%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	77.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	77.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	77.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	77.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	75.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	75.7%	72.6%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	75.7%	63.7%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	75.7%	63.7%	89.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	75.7%	63.7%	90.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	75.7%	63.7%	90.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	75.7%	63.7%	90.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	90.6%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	89.1%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	89.1%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	74.3%	63.7%	89.1%	51.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	75.1%	63.7%	89.1%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	75.1%	63.7%	89.1%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	75.1%	63.7%	89.1%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	75.1%	63.7%	89.1%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	75.1%	63.7%	89.1%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	75.1%	66.0%	88.2%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	75.1%	66.0%	88.2%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	75.1%	66.0%	88.2%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	88.2%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	88.3%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	88.3%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	88.3%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	88.3%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	89.4%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	89.4%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	72.1%	66.0%	89.4%	57.1%	57.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	89.4%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	89.4%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	89.4%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	89.4%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	89.4%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	72.9%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	75.2%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	75.2%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	75.2%	66.0%	87.1%	42.0%	55.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	83.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	82.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	80.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	78.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗