KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

75%

66%

55%

42%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

HRESNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.45u · HRES −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	76.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	18.4%	53.4%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	63.1%	58.4%	14.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	63.6%	72.8%	67.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	57.6%	47.7%	47.7%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	67.7%	39.7%	46.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	11.8%	63.6%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	61.5%	55.0%	45.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	44.9%	65.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	57.0%	64.6%	50.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	58.9%	60.7%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	60.0%	57.3%	44.5%	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	60.3%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	50.0%	57.7%	43.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	44.0%	61.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	47.9%	53.1%	40.8%	—	29.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	46.8%	53.2%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	40.3%	51.1%	43.5%	43.5%	30.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	48.9%	0.1%	—	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	83.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	82.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	80.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	78.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗