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KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
WN2
80%
AIFS
73%
ICON
71%
HRES
37%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u
VS
HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · HRES −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS HRES: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS HRES: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:0050.7%95.5%86.4%26.9%43.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:0050.7%84.1%86.4%26.9%43.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:0050.7%84.1%86.4%26.9%43.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:0078.5%84.1%86.1%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0078.5%84.1%86.1%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:0078.5%84.1%86.1%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:0078.5%84.1%86.1%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:0078.5%84.1%85.6%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:0078.5%84.1%85.6%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:0078.5%84.1%85.6%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:0078.5%84.1%85.6%27.1%43.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:0073.6%84.1%85.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:0073.6%84.1%85.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:0073.6%84.1%85.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:0073.6%84.1%85.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:0073.6%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:0073.6%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:0073.6%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:0073.0%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:0073.0%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:0073.0%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0073.0%84.1%79.6%37.2%71.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%82.7°F2.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%84.7°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single73%84.0°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON71%86.0°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS HRES37%78.4°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗