KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

80%

73%

71%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · HRES −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	14.3%	46.6%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	56.3%	51.4%	11.2%	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	56.6%	66.3%	60.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	50.0%	40.2%	40.2%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	60.3%	32.3%	38.2%	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	8.2%	55.7%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	53.3%	46.7%	37.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	36.6%	57.6%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	48.2%	56.1%	42.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	50.0%	51.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	50.9%	48.2%	35.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	50.9%	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.4%	48.0%	33.9%	—	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	34.4%	52.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	37.8%	42.8%	31.2%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	36.5%	42.6%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	30.1%	40.3%	33.1%	33.1%	21.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	37.8%	0.0%	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	82.7°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	84.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	84.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	86.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	78.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗