KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

30%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.1¢Risks 16.10u

EPSNO 83.9¢Risks 83.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.90u · EPS −83.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:23+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	41.9%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	41.9%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	41.9%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	41.9%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	41.9%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	11.0%	8.9%	38.2%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	38.2%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	38.2%	4.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	38.4%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	38.4%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	38.4%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	38.4%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	37.6%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	37.6%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	37.6%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	33.0%	1.5%	37.6%	4.5%	19.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	27.5%	1.5%	37.6%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	27.5%	1.5%	37.6%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	27.5%	1.5%	37.6%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	27.5%	1.5%	37.6%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	27.5%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	29.1%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	27.0%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	33.2%	7.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	31.1%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	31.1%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	31.1%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	36.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	32.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	32.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	32.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	33.4%	6.9%	32.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	33.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	30.4%	7.9%	32.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	84.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	85.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗