KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

30%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.1¢Risks 16.10u

EPSNO 83.9¢Risks 83.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.90u · EPS −83.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	29.6%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	24.1%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.2%	10.2%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.1%	11.5%	0.7%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	13.2%	19.4%	15.6%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	5.6%	5.6%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.2%	9.9%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	8.3%	6.1%	3.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.3%	9.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.7%	8.3%	4.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.7%	6.3%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.5%	4.8%	2.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.1%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.5%	4.0%	1.7%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	4.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	1.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.4%	2.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	1.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	84.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	85.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗