KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

21%

20%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

EPSNO 86.3¢Risks 86.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.35u · EPS −86.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:15+00:00	33.7%	0.1%	29.1%	6.7%	19.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	29.1%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	29.1%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	29.1%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	29.1%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	38.4%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	38.4%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	34.0%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	34.7%	8.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:11+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	34.7%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	34.7%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	34.7%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	34.7%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	34.7%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	38.2%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	38.2%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	38.2%	9.9%	41.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	38.2%	10.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	38.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	38.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	38.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	34.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	34.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	34.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	34.2%	9.9%	41.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	34.2%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	34.2%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	34.2%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	34.2%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	31.9%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	30.4%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	30.4%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	24.1%	0.0%	30.4%	13.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	21.1%	12.7%	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	21.1%	12.7%	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	21.1%	12.7%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	83.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	80.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.2°F	1.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗