KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

21%

20%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

EPSNO 86.3¢Risks 86.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.35u · EPS −86.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	32.4%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	13.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	8.7%	22.4%	1.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	16.5%	8.7%	6.4%	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	12.9%	6.8%	6.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	10.4%	7.8%	5.3%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.3%	4.5%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.0%	6.6%	6.6%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.4%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	6.5%	2.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.5%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	3.4%	4.3%	2.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.4%	4.0%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.7%	3.0%	2.5%	4.9%	1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	83.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	80.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.2°F	1.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗