KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.5¢Risks 10.55u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 89.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.45u · EPS −89.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:11+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	26.0%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	26.0%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	26.0%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	26.0%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	28.3%	0.3%	26.0%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	27.8%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	27.8%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	27.8%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	27.8%	7.7%	23.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	27.9%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	27.9%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	27.9%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	21.7%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	21.7%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	21.7%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	14.4%	0.2%	21.7%	7.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	21.7%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	21.7%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	21.7%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	21.7%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	22.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	22.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	22.7%	0.2%	14.5%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	22.7%	0.2%	15.4%	2.6%	32.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.4%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.4%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.4%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.4%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	10.4%	0.5%	14.7%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	10.4%	0.5%	14.7%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	14.7%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	14.7%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	9.2%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	9.2%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	9.2%	14.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	9.2%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	9.2%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	9.2%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	9.2%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	9.2%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	13.4%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	13.4%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	13.4%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	13.4%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	13.4%	0.3%	8.5%	20.2%	19.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	16.6%	0.1%	7.2%	16.7%	8.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	16.6%	0.1%	7.2%	16.7%	8.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	16.6%	0.1%	7.2%	16.7%	8.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	10.9%	0.1%	7.2%	16.7%	8.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	7.2%	16.6%	8.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	9.9%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	9.9%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	9.9%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	9.9%	9.1%	7.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	83.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	7%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗