KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.5¢Risks 10.55u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 89.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.45u · EPS −89.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	24.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	2.4%	18.9%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	5.1%	18.9%	1.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.8%	7.9%	5.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.0%	6.3%	7.8%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.4%	6.9%	5.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	2.1%	13.8%	5.6%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	7.0%	6.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	2.7%	12.7%	2.9%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	6.3%	—	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	83.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	7%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗