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KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
86%
WN2
74%
AIFS
62%
HRES
41%
ICON
34%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u
VS
ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:0061.6%86.1%73.8%41.4%33.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0061.6%86.1%73.8%41.4%33.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0061.6%86.1%73.8%41.4%33.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0061.6%86.1%73.8%41.4%33.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble86%81.0°F2.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%82.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single62%80.2°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES41%77.1°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON34%74.3°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗