KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

74%

62%

41%

34%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	68.1%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	74.3%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	6.6%	52.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	41.6%	63.1%	26.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	69.6%	66.3%	50.0%	—	48.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	69.7%	50.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	71.2%	68.4%	46.8%	48.4%	51.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	80.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	77.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	74.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗