KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

16%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.2¢Risks 14.25u

EPSNO 85.8¢Risks 85.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.75u · EPS −85.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	20.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.1%	7.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.6%	10.5%	1.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.8%	10.9%	4.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	6.8%	11.4%	4.4%	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	9.3%	3.0%	3.3%	3.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	84.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	83.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 19:27 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗