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KMCO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
76%
EPS
69%
HRES
63%
AIFS
56%
ICON
47%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u
VS
ICONNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.80u · ICON −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00IFS HRES: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:0056.2%69.1%75.6%62.8%46.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0056.2%69.1%75.6%62.8%46.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0056.2%69.1%75.6%62.8%46.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0056.2%69.1%75.6%62.8%46.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:0056.2%69.1%75.6%62.8%46.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 276%82.3°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%79.7°F2.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES63%80.6°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single56%79.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON47%77.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗