KMCO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

69%

63%

56%

47%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

ICONNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.80u · ICON −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	77.2%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	73.6%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	18.0%	80.2%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	60.4%	73.1%	23.0%	—	50.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	74.0%	82.5%	62.3%	29.7%	54.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	82.6%	—	—	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	82.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	79.7°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	80.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	79.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗